Wall street Rally...Credit Crisis Over? - BetOnMarkets.com
by: cordieliea | Total views: 113 | Word Count: 852 | View PDF | Print View
Early last week US markets powered higher on the release of economic
data that increased the likelihood of a further 25BP cut in interest
rates. The Dow Jones smashed through its previous record high of
14,000, while the broader S&P500 followed suit on Friday. Leading
the charge has been the high tech Nasdaq 100 with companies such as
Google, Apple and RIM (Blackberry) powering to record levels. Many
questioned Google’s IPO price of $100 per share, but with a share price
approaching $600, Google continues to grow at an astonishing pace.
Next week starts with some heavy announcements for the UK, with PPI
and industrial production figures having a potential impact on any
interest rate decisions. FOMC meeting minutes are usually scrutinised
word by word by Fed watchers, and Tuesday’s release of this information
will be no different.
Every line will be examined and opaque sentences will be
interpreted, all in the hope of garnering clues as to the likelihood of
a further rate cut. Wall Street is baying for another cut, and any
hints either way could see the market move significantly. Friday sees
the release of vital retail spending and consumer sentiment data in the
US, both of which will reveal how much the recent credit turmoil has
affected the wider economy. Some economists have put the chances of a
recession in the US as high as 50%, but this view was questioned with
stronger than expected payroll numbers last Friday.
Elsewhere on the currency markets the Euro has come off its highs
against the Dollar and Sterling, but remains well above pre summer/ pre
spike levels. Part of the reason for this strength has been the drop in
interest rates in the US in comparison to the tightening bias of the
EBC. Both the EBC and MPC may follow their American cousins in cutting
rates, but if they do, it is perhaps likely that there could be a time
lag between a potential MPC cut and a potential EBC cut.
On this basis the Euro could remain strong against the sterling
until 2008. In addition December could bring a shock to the UK
government finances. A recent report revealed that by December the
Government may have to include its PFI liabilities on its balance
sheet. If this were indeed to occur it could put further pressure on
Sterling as government debt increases. With this in mind, a no touch
trade could be a suitable option on the EURO/ GBP exchange rate. A no
touch with a trigger at 0.6700 over 90 days returns 12%. This allows
time for any potential PFI difficulties to come into play.
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Personal commentary From Matt Shaw
The Dow continues to play tag with the 14000 level. I do however
think, that anything beyond 14200 on the Dow will not be seen for
several weeks now, possibly months. For the S&P, if we break below
the 1445 level over the next 2-3 sessions, then the sell-off could
commence. I estimate that we will begin the breakdown (if it hasn't
already started), by way of a gradual process after next
Tuesday/Wednesday - 9th/10th Oct'
There is a lot of cash out there right now, ready to be put to work.
Before now, it has been split evenly between Stock Funds and Credit
Funds. With the Credit Crunch saga coming to fruition (funny choice of
phrase) of late, this has led to many people cashing in their
investments from Credit funds, Bond funds and Fixed Income, then put
them to work into equities.
Equities seemed like some sort of safe haven and losses are
seemingly more controlled. Combine these factors with low interest
rates, and the backdrop of inflation, and it seems equities were an
‘easy buy’, hence no big sell-off toward the end of Sept.
I now feel that we are set to Range trade over the coming weeks and
I say this with a mild hint of hesitation - we may then sell-off from
(more than mildly) end middle/end of Oct. With the FTSE - Resistance
6610 with support at 6325. This week could be the start of a strong
decline, or new highs, by way of a further 1-2% rise!
- THE END -
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